The north of Buenos Aires province is on alert due to weather projections anticipating the arrival of a "Super Niño." The mayor of Zárate, Lisandro Matzkin, warned of a possible historic rise in the Paraná River, with levels not seen for more than 30 years. The municipality is already working on a prevention plan together with security and armed forces to coordinate assistance and evacuation operations[reference:10].
Experts like Rodrigo Rodríguez Tornquist point out that this episode is more pronounced than those of 1997 or 2015, resembling only the one that occurred in 1877-1878. While a traditional El Niño anomaly ranges between 2 and 3 degrees above normal, current models report areas with anomalies between 5 and 7 degrees, a scenario described as "overwhelming" and "challenging"[reference:11].
Although more than 30 models confirm the phenomenon, it is still unclear where it will hit hardest. Water resources engineer Hugo Rorman explained that only by July or August will there be a definition of which areas will suffer the heaviest rains: the humid pampas, the Argentine littoral, or the basins in Brazil and Paraguay. Despite the uncertainty, the statistics are clear: 90% of these phenomena lead to heavy rainfall or extraordinary flooding of the Paraná[reference:12].
NOAA warned that El Niño could become one of the most intense events on record. The probability that it will reach the "very strong" category increased from 63% to 81% for the October-December period. This phenomenon is characterized by a rise in temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which must exceed the average by 0.5°C for several months[reference:13].
Historically, strong El Niño events increase rainfall in the Río de la Plata Basin. The most affected provinces could be Entre Ríos, Santa Fe, eastern Córdoba, and northern Buenos Aires, as well as Uruguay, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. Rains would occur in the form of intense storms and river floods during spring and summer[reference:14]. The peak impact is estimated to be felt between October and February, requiring a review of drainage systems, canals, and pumping stations[reference:15].
The phenomenon would also bring risks such as urban and rural flooding, logistical complications, and productive losses. Background shows that the same episode can have positive effects in some agricultural regions and significant damage in others, especially in the Pampas region[reference:16]. One of the greatest risks is the impact on the Paraná and Uruguay river basins, where rains in southern Brazil could increase flows and cause seasonal floods until March or April, even after El Niño begins to weaken[reference:17].
NOAA also warned that this episode is developing in a context of record ocean temperatures, which could intensify extreme events such as heatwaves and severe storms[reference:18]. The "Super Niño" 2026 poses a historical challenge for the region. The specialists' recommendation is clear: not to be paralyzed by fear, but to prepare with prevention measures and inter-institutional coordination[reference:19].
