The daily Niño 3.4 index surpassed the 2015 maximum in September and was near +3.5°C by late October. The ocean signal is exceptional, but intensity does not automatically determine local damage or a single cause.
An analysis published by la diaria argues that historical averages are no longer enough to design cities, infrastructure and productive systems exposed to shifting extremes. The answer is not to abandon forecasting, but to combine probabilistic scenarios, adaptation, restored ecosystems and emissions cuts.
The World Meteorological Organization expects warming in the central and eastern Pacific to develop into a strong event during August-October 2026. Its overlap with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may shift rainfall and raise heat, drought, flood and wildfire risks.