The World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño will keep strengthening from August and is expected to become a strong event during August-October 2026. The phenomenon begins with unusual surface warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and alters atmospheric circulation worldwide.
The warning does not mean every region will experience the same effect or that each extreme event can be attributed directly to El Niño. Climate patterns shift probabilities for temperature and rainfall. Even in strong events, local outcomes depend on season, geography and other atmospheric systems.
This year brings an additional combination: a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast, with relatively warmer western waters and cooler eastern waters. The two patterns together can amplify anomalies around the Indian Ocean basin and increase exposure to droughts, floods and wildfires.
El Niño is developing on a planet already warmed by human emissions. That hotter baseline raises temperature extremes, favors heatwaves and allows air to hold more moisture, intensifying downpours when conditions release it. The natural pattern redistributes risk; it does not replace the structural cause of warming.
WMO said it is intensifying data and support services to help countries anticipate impacts. The warning's value depends on turning seasonal outlooks into decisions: flexible crop calendars, water reserves, health surveillance, preventive fuel management and infrastructure ready for too much or too little rain.
Sensitive sectors include agriculture, hydropower, urban supply, fisheries, health and emergency management. Drought can reduce harvests and generation; a wet season can overwhelm drainage and reservoirs. Governments need updated regional scenarios, not a single global label of “strong El Niño.”
The coming months will show the pace of strengthening and allow forecasts to be refined. The immediate priority is to finance early warnings and local protocols before losses occur. Adaptation can limit risk, but fossil-fuel emission cuts remain essential so that each natural oscillation does not act on an ever-hotter climate.
