The update cited by UOL assigns a 69% chance that the RONI index reaches at least +2.5°C in October–December. Pacific warming is real, but “super El Niño” is not a WMO operational category and no seasonal forecast determines local weather on its own.
The hillside collapsed before dawn onto two or three homes in a densely populated Ghatkopar settlement. As of August 12, four people were injured, ten had been pulled from the debris and residents still believed one person was missing.
Afghanistan recorded at least 31 deaths, Chattogram received 412.3 millimeters in 24 hours and more than 890,000 people were evacuated in Guangdong. Warming increases available moisture, while vulnerable housing, crops and infrastructure turn heavy rain into disaster.